India's Jet Fuel Exports to Asia Surge Ahead of Winter Demand

India's jet fuel exports to Asia are projected to reach approximately 2.7 million barrels in November, marking the highest level since data tracking began in 2017, according to industry sources and shiptracking data from LSEG, Kpler, and Vortexa. This represents a more than 40% increase compared to October, driven by rising winter demand and constrained supplies due to refinery outages and reduced exports from China.

More than half of India's jet fuel exports are destined for Singapore, with significant volumes also reaching Hong Kong and Malaysia, Vortexa data indicates. The rise in shipments follows the closure of arbitrage opportunities to Europe, pushing Indian refiners to pivot their supply to Asian markets.

"Seasonal kerosene stockpiling in Japan and recent refinery outages in Malaysia have tightened supplies in Asia, creating opportunities for more jet fuel to stay within the region," said Serena Huang, head of APAC analysis at Vortexa.

Japan’s imports of jet fuel and kerosene are expected to hit a nine-month high of 1.34 million barrels in November, while Malaysia’s jet fuel exports have fallen to multi-year lows at 150,000 barrels.

Chinese jet fuel exports declined to 1.45 million metric tons (approximately 11.4 million barrels) in October, the lowest in 10 months, with similar volumes anticipated for November, according to customs data. Reduced tax rebates on Chinese exports, set to take effect next month, may further impact supply from the region.

Weaker aviation fuel demand in India, with September consumption levels still 16% below pre-pandemic figures, has also contributed to the availability of Indian barrels for export, according to Charles Ong, senior analyst at LSEG Oil Research.

Whether India's jet fuel exports to Asia will remain elevated in December depends on European demand dynamics and changes in Chinese export policies, trade sources suggest.